Fantasy Darts 2020 - Discussion Thread

[Safc]

I havn't had time and if we do it again next year i'm happy for you to do it.

me - comps
you - fantasy
rogg/emu - lucky dip/survive the darts

[vizIIsto]

I havn't had time and if we do it again next year i'm happy for you to do it.

me - comps
you - fantasy
rogg/emu - lucky dip/survive the darts

If people want me running it in 2021 then I'll do it

[vizIIsto]

Here's another fancy breakdown of the projections: how many of your points are expected to come from what sections of players?
not everyone is included; everyone with either a very high percentage or a very high score for a category is in the list

Most points coming from top half: Darts Secretary | 369 (71%), Jock mccallum | 360 (71%), Safc | 542 (67%), thegentle | 548 (60%), Jimmi | 662 (54%), Cinnamon Bun | 591 (53%)
Most points coming from bottom half: Cooking with Sanchez | 314 (80%), vizIIsto | 847 (74%), mrb | 697 (73%), The Ginge Reaper | 394 (68%), Gidra | 365 (66%), cannibal | 697 (61%), Emulsfier | 679 (55%)

Most points coming from top quarter: Jock mccallum | 245 (48%), daveboygreen | 329 (46%), SuperSwede | 259 (38%), TheGoose | 308 (37%), Spudface | 286 (32%)
Most points coming from second quarter: Darts Secretary | 303 (58%), bojeru | 483 (56%), Safc | 435 (54%), The Dazzler | 304 (53%), Barney Army | 351 (50%), Cinnamon Bun | 484 (44%) and a bunch of others with 30+%
Most points coming from third quarter: Cooking with Sanchez | 314 (80%!), Gidra | 365 (66%), SuperSwede | 415 (62%), skweezit | 566 (61%), Greipel | 497 (60%), vizIIsto and tungsten tossers also have 566 points from this quarter.
Most points coming from fourth quarter: The Ginge Reaper | 344 (59%), Rogg | 370 (36%), JH-01 | 281 (32%), mrb, vizIIsto and cannibal also with 281 points. More than half of you have no one in this quarter

Most points from Englishmen: M H | 293 (58%), daveboygreen | 319 (45%), TheGoose | 308 (37%), Spudface | 286 (32%), Emulsfier | 304 (25%)
Most points from Dutchmen: bullseye | 307 (66%), The Dazzler | 256 (45%), Rogg | 396 (38%), 7 players picked Van Gerwen and Noppert for 307 points (Rogg also picked Dirk). And of course: Ross, Bob | 0 (100%!!!)
Most points from ET winners this year (Cullen, Price, De Sousa, Petersen): bojeru | 558 (65%), Emulsfier | 683 (56% - Emu has all four!). Rogg, vizIIsto and cannibal all have Price, De Sousa and Petersen for 558 points. 5 players have none of these.

[SuperSwede]

Loving your work Viz

Yourself and Safc the dreamteam for the comps.

[Emulsfier]

Wait i put cullen in? Well done me.

[vizIIsto]

Two things changed in the Points Updating thread:
1. I now format the points earned by darts players ranking them by their value; this is also the way it's in my spreadsheet.
2. You can now see the change of spots for every tournament next to your points total. (if there's nothing, that means you're still in the same spot

[vizIIsto]

How did Round 1 go?
Four players scored over 400 points. They are Cinnamon Bun (465), Jimmi (455), Emulsfier (440) and vizIIsto (435). bullseye (120) and Cooking with Sanchez (155) haven't done so well.
When looking at our FDI projections, we find that the top 7 scorers from Round 1 are also the 7 with the highest expected scores. So I guess that's bonus points for FDI's ratings!

Who has earned the most points relative to the projections?
The Ginge Reaper is leading here, having already earned almost half of what he was expected to win. Of the players with a relatively higher first round score, Cinnamon Bun (465 = 42%), bojeru (350 = 41%) and vizIIsto (435 = 38%) had a pretty good round.
On the other end of the spectrum... ouch! Some top names are struggling. Third-placed The Goose is doing pretty bad compared to FDI's expectations (185 = 22%), and next on the list is leader thegentle (230 = 25%). This means Rogg, Jimmi and bojeru have all the space to pass them in the next three days.

The expected scores in the end might turn out to be imperfect; maybe we get a much lower score on average, maybe we score more points. But at least I can see how well everyone did compared to not only the projections but compared to the others as well.

[vizIIsto]

Rogg has virtually taken over first place from thegentle, who is now certain not to maintain his leading position after the European Championship.
Jimmi is in with a shot of overtaking both if Wright and O'Connor do well enough.

[Jimmi]

Rogg has virtually taken over first place from thegentle, who is now certain not to maintain his leading position after the European Championship.
Jimmi is in with a shot of overtaking both if Wright and O'Connor do well enough.

Come on lads!

And a bonus if Big Willie beats Wade!

[vizIIsto]

Round two has passed.

9 players no longer have one of their players left in the tournament. More than half of those who do, have more than one left. Jimmi has the most with 4, followed by tungsten tossers and vizIIsto who have 3, and I mention this because 3 is my lucky number.
Jimmi can either have all his 4 players winning, or no one making the semis. But he has a great shot at snatching first place from Rogg here.

Cinnamon Bun (+6), Emulsfier (+5) and vizIIsto (+4) are the big gainers so far, but the real big gainers when it comes to prizes are currently Rogg and Jimmi who have stolen spots from thegentle.
For the sake of sparing the unfortunate I won't mention the biggest 'losers' this time around.

It is time to look at how my projections compare with the actual results.
I introduce a correlation value. With correlation, you can calculate the likelihood of two matrixes being related to each other. It ranges from -1 to +1. The closer it is to zero, the more independent the two values are. This is to say that the projections do not accurately simulate how well people will actually do.
The closer to 1, the more related they are.
The current correlation value is 0,85, which means that the FDI projections are doing very good at predicting scores for Fantasy Darts. That's more bonus points!

The top 10 of this week so far, are also the top 10 in FDI's projections, apart from 9th-projected thegentle who is substituted by bojeru, who also had a higher than average projected score. So despite some of the surprises so far, they are still very accurate!
Jimmi is the first one to cross the 1K barrier for this week. The gap between him and currently second-best vizIIsto is almost 150 points!

No one has done better than FDI's projections so far, but the week is not over and Jock mccallum only needs 15 more points to do so. M H is also doing pretty well, but their score and projection wasn't so high.
More significantly, bojeru and Jimmi both have already earned more than 5/6th of what they were expected to win. To clarify, on average you have earned two thirds of what you were expected to win so far
bullseye must be pretty miserable this week, as they only won 150 points - less than half of the second-worst participant - and they didn't even win a third of what they could have expected to win, even though those expectations were already second worst.
TheGoose and thegentle, both in the top 3 before the EC, are still hanging only at the 50% mark, which explains their loss for a big part.

[Jimmi]

[thegentle]

This is getting twitchy, isn't it? At least everyone's choices have been locked in, we've done all we can! For the record, I would happily take 4th right now even though I've been leading this most of the way!

[vizIIsto]

We enter the semis as it's clear that we will have a new leader after today. Whether that will be Rogg or Jimmi all depends on Wright's success today. If Wright scores at least 65 points or more, Jimmi will become the new leader.
theoretically, TheGoose can also still get first, but James Wade needs to hit like five 9-darters

20 players still have one or two darters left in the tournament. Of them, people like cannibal, Cinnamon Bun and tungsten tossers can all take another scalp or two in their already huge rises this week.
Three players have already done better than the projected scores I shared. Of them, Jimmi is the most notable name, having already scored 5% more with two players left in what will be a high-scoring finals day. Jock mccallum and bojeru have also beaten the odds so far, and tungsten tossers and vizIIsto are within 20 points to follow them.
bullseye and JH-01 are the only ones to not even reach 50% of their expected score this weekend. On average, people have collected almost 80% of their score. Look for yourselves to see how well you did! 34 people is too much to mention.

Almost all of the 'big names' I had beforehand are doing very well this week. 8 of the top 10 of the projections are in the top 10 highest scores for the EC, and they together climbed 3,2 spots on average! Or, 34 of the 39 spots gained this weekend came from these 10 players (thegentle lost two).

Finally, since I introduced correlation yesterday and explained what it is, let's take a look and see if scores since the second transfer period are related to the rankings before that. In other words: are people who were high on the ranking a month ago statistically doing better than lower-rated players?
Where the correlation value for FDI-projections was 0,85 - a clear similarity - here it is 0,33. That means that although there is a relationship between the two matrixes, the correlation is small, and only to a moderate degree do the old rankings reflect the scores you get today.

Tomorrow is the conclusion of another big tournament! Will it be the last of this season because UK is going to another lockdown? I guess only time tells.

[vizIIsto]

EC has ended. Here's how many points everyone gained, and how many positions that helped you win (or caused you to lose):
Jimmi - 1660 (+3)
vizIIsto - 1505 (+7)
Emulsfier - 1445 (+7)
tungsten tossers - 1425 (+11)
Cinnamon Bun - 1375 (+10)
skweezit - 1160 (+4)
Mabbsy - 1135 (+5)
Rogg - 1090 (-)
bojeru - 1020 (+1)
cannibal - 965 (+2)
Barney Army - 875 (+2)
Jock mccallum - 870 (-)
SuperSwede - 835 (-)
Malanax - 805 (-)
Gidra - 735 (+1)
thegentle - 710 (-2)
mrb - 695 (-2)
Spudface - 695 (-)
TheGoose - 670 (-3)
daveboygreen - 645 (-2)
Randall - 645 (-)
Tommo - 600 (-4)
Safc - 595 (-)
peshark - 535 (-4)
Darts Secretary - 515 (-3)
M H - 490 (-1)
Greipel - 485 (-6)
The Ginge Reaper - 480 (-1)
JH-01 - 430 (-)
The Dazzler - 370 (-1)
Cooking with Sanchez - 320 (-8)
Gunga Din - 310 (-5)
Slasher - 300 (-7)
bullseye - 150 (-4)

Here's another weird way of analyzing things to show off the capabilities of my spreadsheet: Which picks cost their users the most places this week? (note: only players that played this week. Picks that didn't play would likely be on the negative list)
Michael van Gerwen: -19 spots (-0.8 on average)
Jamie Hughes (??): -15 spots (-2.1 on average)
Mensur Suljovic: -12 spots (-4 on average!)
Dave Chisnall: -10 spots (-1.1 on average)
And which were the most valuable picks?
Peter Wright: +50 spots (+3.8 on average!)
Devon Petersen: +48 spots (+3.7 on average!)
Krzysztof Ratajski (??): +31 spots (+2.1 on average)
Jose de Sousa: +23 spots (+2.1 on average)
Nathan Aspinall (??): +21 spots (+2.1 on average)
Gabriel Clemens (??): +14 spots (+0.7 on average)
There are question marks behind some of these names, because there is little to suggest that their picks in itself were great. Despite their high value, none of them scored above 70 points this weekend. Ratajski and Clemens didn't even win their opening game, yet people who picked Hughes - who not only reached a round further but is also worth less - had their participants lose many spots?

On to the FDI projections.
Before the tournament I created an accurary meter which for each player calculates how far off their eventual score was compared to their expected score as a value. 1,4 means that either their score was 40% above the expected score, or the expected score is 40% above their real score. I wanted the overall average to be below 1,4, which would mean that the expected score would be on average 40% higher or lower which seemed accurate enough. The accuracy score for this weekend is 1,39, so that's a win for FDI!
Also, the average score this weekend was 781, while the average projected score was 784. That's also very accurate! Yay!

15 players scored more than expected this tournament. All 13 players who picked Peter Wright are in this group, just as 9 out of 13 players who picked Petersen. In the end, most players had an expected score which was less than 50% off-target; six players had an expected score which was at least 50% higher than reality, and Jock mccallum had over 70% more than FDI estimated.
Overall, this was a very fun tournament to collect stats off, as I've tried multiple different things to see how well the projections are, as well as how well everyone is doing compared to others and which players were great picks.

On to the next one!

[Jimmi]

Excellent work

[vizIIsto]

In case anyone thinks I might have forgotten the GSOD qualifier of yesterday counts for Fantasy Darts (perhaps you're the one who forgot it did), I'll be combining those points with the Winter Series results this week.

[Jimmi]

Since when?

[vizIIsto]

GSOD Qualifier and Winter Series points have been added. Few changes on the leaderboard but Emu is now in the prizes.
For today's stat, let's look at the two remaining tournaments of the comp and how many players you have playing in them.

First up, Grand Slam.
bojeru leads the dance with 9 players participating in the Slam. Next are Emulsfier and skweezit with 8, followed by a couple with 7, among them the remainder of the top 6.
Strangely enough Gidra and Cooking with Sanchez picked Suzuki, who didn't play in any tournaments after the Worlds but is in the Grand Slam. Will that prove to be a calculated tactic?
The most expensive player not playing is Gurney. Greipel will be sad.

What about the Players Championship Finals?
Multiple players have all their players participating. Rogg, thegentle, Emulsfier, Cinnamon Bun, cannibal, vizIIsto, bullseye and JH-01 all have the full 11 player squad on the grid!

When we combine these two tournaments, we see that bojeru and Emulsfier have the most chances with 19 'participations', whereas Gunga Din has the fewest with 10.
I hope to be doing some calculations over the course of today and tomorrow since both the GS and PCF draws are known, I just don't know if FDI's twitter channel will do some projections of the PC Finals before the Grand Slam starts. It'd be cool to try and calculate both the remaining tournaments, but I guess that won't be happening.

[vizIIsto]

I have done my FDI calculations.
Here's how I calculated it:
I took the percentages from this tweet, and assigned a number of points for each position, based on how many matches a player wins, and how many 180s and Finish points they get on average.
For example: 4th place gets 50 points. This is an estimation of the points a player falling in this category will get. This is the same for anyone who gets 4th place.
Here's the entire score list:
4th - 50 pts
3rd - 75 pts
2nd - 95 pts
1st - 115 pts
Last 16 out - +40 pts (added to Group score)
Quarter-Finalist - +145 pts
Semi-Finalist - +280 pts
Finalist - +440 pts
Winner - +520 pts
I won't show all the players by themselves, but I can say that the score they get is pretty close to the Expected Money stat in FDI's post divided by 100. So Dirk, who has $12,275, gets 127 points in my calculations. The biggest boys have a bit less than that, and the likes of Suzuki and Gawlas have a bit more than x/100.

And now on to what matters actually: how many points will you get the upcoming week?
On average, you get about 1200 points. Like I said, higher than previous tournaments. Isn't that wonderful?
Emu is bringing out the big guns after their rise to the top four, as they lead with 1832 EP! (that means Expected Points). skweezit and bojeru complete the top 3, both with over 1650 EP.
There isn't a clear bottom player though, as many of you have between 800 and 1000 EP. 13 out of 34 players, to be exact.
There's an interesting pattern to be seen here which I do not find strange at all, which is that how many points you've scored so far is very related to the amount of EP you have. Remember correlation? When that value is above 0,5, that is usually seen as a high correlation between two matrixes. Here, the value is 0,93, which is almost as high as it can go! So if you've been sliding down the rankings of lately, be afraid that spell may continue!

Which players will make the biggest shifts?
First, the leaderboard. Jimmi is expected to hold on to top spot, but Rogg and thegentle will each lose a spot to Emu if we were to believe the rankings, and considering Emu has all their players in the PCFinals as well, this could get very interesting until the last dart has been thrown!
Remarkably, almost all the players with an above average EP value, are already in the top half of the leaderboard. There are two notable examples: skweezit and vizIIsto. They have the 2nd and 4th highest expected scores. skweezit and vizIIsto both provisionally rise 6 spots, but it's likely far too late to warrant a comeback of utmost proportions.
The only people to lose a few spots this tournament are TheGoose with -3, and Slasher and Greipel, both with -4. This is for the same reasons as to why skweezit and viz are likely to climb the rankings, but reversed, as they are the few top players with a low expected score.

That's it!

[Safc]

Imagine if someone wins or loses becauae a random winning in the PDPA qualifier.