2023 Melbourne Cup Day

[Captain Hobo]

Just about 24 hours until the big one kicks off. I shall post in-depth thoughts later but I am quite keen on last year's winner Gold Trip who is currently 3rd favourite to win again.

[The Thorn]

What sport

[Captain Hobo]

Horse Racing.

[The Thorn]

Horse Racing.

Don't tell Oche unless it will be the Vegas hotel shooting all over again

[Captain Hobo]

Horse Racing.

Don't tell Oche

Been a few years since a horse died in the race fortunately.

Here is Gold Trip winning last year.

[Captain Hobo]

Horse Racing.

Don't tell Oche unless it will be the Vegas hotel shooting all over again

Probably shouldn't mention to Greipel that more than half the field are males who've had their balls removed.

[Captain Hobo]

Here's the field in order of weight. Top weight has 58.5kg and the last 3 are on the minimum of 50kg

1. Gold Trip 13/2

Was top weight last year with 57.5 and won well on a soft track. The track will be firmer this year but he's had a similar preparation to last year and seems to be racing better than he was at this stage last year, has a good barrier and the best big race jockey in Australia.

I don't normally like top weights but I think he should be favourite and have backed him at 7/1. I'll have more on tomorrow if he keeps drifting.

2. Alenquer 40/1

German import who is out of form. There'll be sentimental money as the jockey (Damien Oliver) is having his last ride in the race but I think he has no chance.

3. Without a Fight 6/1

Won the traditional lead up race, The Caulfield Cup, and last year's winning jockey has chosen to ride him instead of Gold Trip. Clear 2nd choice.

4. Breakup 18/1

Japanese Horse who ran poorly in the Caulfield Cup. Japanese horses have a good record in our Feature Races when they are allowed in but I don't like this one.

5. Vauban 4/1F

Favourite from the Willie Mullins stable. It's impossible to line up imports who haven't raced here yet as the tracks, field size and tempo are all so different. Some will handle it and some won't, I think he's under the odds.

6. Soulcombe 9/1

Ran on fairly in the Caulfield Cup. Some chance and the extra distance suits but I think he's too short.

7. Absurde 9/1

Willie Mullins' second runner. Seems too short as well.

8. Right You Are 33/1

One of 2 Aussie bred horses in the race. Ran well in the Caulfield Cup but I doubt he can run Top 3.

9. Vow and Declare 25/1

The other Aussie bred horse. Won the race in 2019, but he's well past his best now. Ran 10th last year, will finish somewhere about there tomorrow.

10. Cleveland - Scratched

[Captain Hobo]

11. Ashrun 33/1

Same stable and colours as Gold Trip, the jockey has won the cup 3 times but it won't be 4 tomorrow.

12. Daqiansweet Junior 70/1

Took longer to type his name than to consider his chances.

13. Okita Soushi 80/1

Ran poorly in the Caulfield Cup and I'd be surprised if he ran Top 5

14. Sheraz 100/1

Out of form.

15. Lastotchka 16/1

Northern Hemisphere 3 year old filly who doesn't seem well in at the weights. I'll leave her out.

16. Magical Lagoon 100/1

Ran OK in the Geelong Cup. Might be a rough place chance.

17. Military Mission 22/1

Will probably be leading when they pass the finishing post....the first time. Won't be there at the finish.

18. Serpentine 40/1

No chance at all.

19. Virtuous Circle 125/1

Nope

[Captain Hobo]

20. More Felons 25/1

Bad barrier, jockey out of form. No

21. Future History 18/1

Interesting runner. Very well weighted. I have no idea how Hollie Doyle will ride in a Melbourne Cup and from a tricky barrier that might cost him. Top 3 chance

22. Interpretation 80/1

Not good enough.

23. Kalapour 40/1

Won a weak qualifying race to get in, no chance.

24. True Marvel 100/1

Nearly won the Sydney Cup at 100/1 in April then went over hurdles over the winter. Won't be winning but is not the worst.

[Captain Hobo]

So to summarise I think there are very few genuine chances and a lot of runners that are just making up the numbers. I've backed Gold Trip and done the below Trifecta which is 80 combinations.

1,3
1,3,6,7,21,24
1,3,4,6,7,8,13,16,21,24

[Captain Hobo]

And I probably should add I've been betting on the Melbourne Cup since I was 16 and landed the winner exactly 2 times.

[ChrisW]

Had a punt on Gold Trip, Absurede and Magical Lagoon.

[Captain Hobo]

Had a punt on Gold Trip, Absurede and Magical Lagoon.

Good luck mate.

[vizIIsto]

Fuck people using hores for 'sport'.

[The Thorn]

Fuck people using hores for 'sport'.

[TheMalteseDart]

I’d have a bet if it wasn’t race off at 4am

[Captain Hobo]

No further scratchings so far.

Gold Trip now 7/1

[ChrisW]

Can't stay up for it. But looking forward to watch the replay.

[Captain Hobo]

The race for grey horses is now the one before the Cup. It used to be on the Thursday.

[Captain Hobo]

Vauban out to 5/1
Gold Trip and Without a Fight solid at 13/2
Absurde into 7/1