The Darts Forum

Bump. Quite a few threads active atm.
No fancy predictions this round but here's how many players each participant has playing in this weekend's Euro Tour event:
9 players: Tommo, Cinnamon Bun, daveboygreen, JH-01
8 players: thegentle, bojeru, Jimmi, peshark, Greipel, cannibal, Emulsfier, Mabbsy, Spudface, tungsten tossers, vizIIsto
7 players: Rogg, Slasher, Randall, mrb, Safc, bullseye, The Ginge Reaper, The Dazzler, Jock mccallum
6 players: TheGoose, Malanax, Gunga Din, Barney Army, skweezit
5 players: Darts Secretary, SuperSwede, M H
4 players: Cooking with Sanchez, Gidra

Four players who initially qualified resigned to play (Wright, Lewis, Joyce and Webster). This was costly for SuperSwede, who had both Wright and Joyce in their squad. Some others also had one of these players in their team, but this includes none of the top 8 besides Jimmi

I needed Wright to play
Oh well

thegentle wrote: ↑Mon Oct 12, 2020 10:52 pm Just when I thought it would be a good time to swap out de Zwaan for Ratajski...

I think Chizzy for DvB was better was better move

Lil' Stat update:
Since I promised I won't mention myself I'll say that cannibal is the sole leader when it comes to most players in the tournament with 9. On average people have 5 2/3 players in. The current top 6 all have 5 or 6 players in.
Because of the players who dropped out because of covid mostly there are a bunch of you who had one or two players initially participating who are now not. This meant that a certain someone would have only one of their 11 players not in...

The European Championship is coming up. Time to look at some stats.
The ET4 weekend wasn't very fruitful. No one scored 50 points or more last weekend... so let's not talk about it any further!

Jimmi and Cinnamon Bun have the most players participating in the European Championship with 9. Gidra and Cooking with Sanchez have the least with three. Both of them had picked Durrant, who is not allowed to play.
But what if more players decide not to play? Wright has decided not to attend the latest two ET events, having already qualified for the big stage, and him not playing would mean disaster for Gidra who would then have only 2 in.
The next four in line to replace in if someone can't come - something we've seen happening at the WGP - are Ron Meulenkamp, Jason Lowe and Scott Waites. This means that Jimmi potentially has 10 players in, if someone misses the EC who is not in his squad.
Barney Army has both Meulenkamp and Waites in their team, so for them it's resorting to hoping people get corona

Finally, these people under the current draw are also guaranteed to have at least one player advancing (of course, 'guaranteed' says nothing this year):
2 players - Barney Army, Cinnamon Bun
1 player - daveboygreen, JH-01, Jimmi, Mabbsy, peshark, Randall, Rogg, skweezit, SuperSwede, The Dazzler, The Ginge Reaper, tungsten tossers, vizIIsto
Most come from matches with both players as popular picks, such as Van Gerwen - Labanauskas and Wright - Clemens, but astonishingly The Ginge Reaper was the only one to pick both Michael and Ross Smith, who play each other!

Oh fucking no!!!!!!

Great stuff Viz. Don't worry about Ginge, he's been fuming ever since they picked his birthday as the day to cancel his beloved Romanian Classic.

Rogg wrote:Great stuff Viz. Don't worry about Ginge, he's been fuming ever since they picked his birthday as the day to cancel his beloved Romanian Classic.

Therong Brotherdied had a brilliant chance of winning it.

According to FDI projections - which I use for my own predictions - this is how many players of your teams are likely to win their first match oncoming Thursday:
Emulsfier - 5,79
Jimmi - 5,69
vizIIsto - 5,4
Cinnamon Bun - 5,32
cannibal - 5,25
tungsten tossers - 5,02
Rogg - 4,64
mrb - 4,37
JH-01 - 4,3
skweezit - 4,25
Spudface - 4,09
thegentle - 4,05
Greipel - 3,98
Safc - 3,91
bojeru - 3,84
daveboygreen - 3,81
TheGoose - 3,69
Mabbsy - 3,68
peshark - 3,44
Barney Army - 3,42
Tommo - 3,28
Malanax - 3,19
SuperSwede - 3,09
The Ginge Reaper - 2,8
Darts Secretary - 2,58
M H - 2,52
The Dazzler - 2,52
Jock mccallum - 2,51
Slasher - 2,48
Gunga Din - 2,47
Gidra - 2,39
Randall - 2,36
bullseye - 2,18
Cooking with Sanchez - 1,84

How has FDI been doing in terms of accuracy lately Viz? I stopped following it for no particular reason though as i've stated previously I think it tends to overrate favourites and their winning margins (on casual view, haven't studied it deeply)

SuperSwede wrote: ↑Tue Oct 27, 2020 3:15 pm How has FDI been doing in terms of accuracy lately Viz? I stopped following it for no particular reason though as i've stated previously I think it tends to overrate favourites and their winning margins (on casual view, haven't studied it deeply)

I stopped tracking it all too much but I can remember from the WGP, which was the one big tournament we've had since I took over, that most of the players I had as high up there, did well; Rogg iirc got first like my projections and cannibal got third.
I also remember of those predicted 'high-scorers', I was the only one with a disappointing result, but still I'm in the top half of scorers since Transfer 2.
It's not a big correlation but it is there. You can make an argument that it is because they have 'better players in general' or 'more players in the tournament', which puts FDI into disregard.

Perhaps it's a good idea to bring out the predictions again for the EC and see how things add up. I voided myself in the list a few posts ago but as you might be able to guess I'm high up there (not first though).

vizIIsto wrote: ↑Tue Oct 27, 2020 3:25 pm Perhaps it's a good idea to bring out the predictions again for the EC and see how things add up. I voided myself in the list a few posts ago but as you might be able to guess I'm high up there (not first though).

I don't think you need to void yourself, i'd rather you didn't actually.

SuperSwede wrote: ↑Tue Oct 27, 2020 3:41 pm

vizIIsto wrote: ↑Tue Oct 27, 2020 3:25 pm Perhaps it's a good idea to bring out the predictions again for the EC and see how things add up. I voided myself in the list a few posts ago but as you might be able to guess I'm high up there (not first though).

I don't think you need to void yourself, i'd rather you didn't actually.

Understood.
Time to get laughed at because I keep doing worse than expected from my own system

vizIIsto wrote: ↑Tue Oct 27, 2020 3:43 pm

SuperSwede wrote: ↑Tue Oct 27, 2020 3:41 pm

vizIIsto wrote: ↑Tue Oct 27, 2020 3:25 pm Perhaps it's a good idea to bring out the predictions again for the EC and see how things add up. I voided myself in the list a few posts ago but as you might be able to guess I'm high up there (not first though).

I don't think you need to void yourself, i'd rather you didn't actually.

Understood.
Time to get laughed at because I keep doing worse than expected from my own system

I'd expect you do well but it's not like you have a cheat code and I prefer to see if and when someone does something well and then decipher how/why for myself.

SuperSwede wrote: ↑Tue Oct 27, 2020 4:01 pm

vizIIsto wrote: ↑Tue Oct 27, 2020 3:43 pm

SuperSwede wrote: ↑Tue Oct 27, 2020 3:41 pm

vizIIsto wrote: ↑Tue Oct 27, 2020 3:25 pm Perhaps it's a good idea to bring out the predictions again for the EC and see how things add up. I voided myself in the list a few posts ago but as you might be able to guess I'm high up there (not first though).

I don't think you need to void yourself, i'd rather you didn't actually.

Understood.
Time to get laughed at because I keep doing worse than expected from my own system

I'd expect you do well but it's not like you have a cheat code and I prefer to see if and when someone does something well and then decipher how/why for myself.

When deciding my transfers for T2 I put all players in an Excel file with their values and FDI ratings (I adjusted them based on tournaments they qualified for - PCF, ET's and WGP) and then I looked up how to maximize outcome based on given criteria's. But my initial team to begin with was already pretty bad so I'm still not first in my own projections

Fucking Hell!

I put no thought whatsoever into these things

It's all well and good doing that but there are no guarantees still luck involved absolutely nobody could predict Petersens up turn in form or DVDB winning the Matchplay or DVD getting to the final of the WGP

So here's an update on FDI's predictions and the semi-expected scores:
Gerwyn Price is favorite. De Sousa and Petersen are in the top 5 when it comes to highest average expected score, together with Price, Van Gerwen and Aspinall.

Here is everybody's expected score this weekend, although nothing is certain like Safc said and it's hard to estimate the average score for each player's result:
Emulsfier - 1230 points
Jimmi - 1215 points
cannibal - 1146 points
vizIIsto - 1141 points
Cinnamon Bun - 1105
tungsten tossers - 1058
Rogg - 1034
mrb - 952
skweezit - 935
thegentle - 914
JH-01 - 892
Spudface - 882
bojeru - 861
Greipel - 833
TheGoose - 830
Mabbsy - 822
Safc - 809
peshark - 772
Malanax - 733
daveboygreen - 709
Barney Army - 702
Tommo - 694
SuperSwede - 674
The Ginge Reaper - 583
The Dazzler - 569
Gunga Din - 564
Slasher - 561
Gidra - 554
Darts Secretary - 520
Jock Mccallum - 510
M H - 508 points
Randall - 496 points
bullseye - 464 points
Cooking with Sanchez - 394 points

The top 5 won't see much change apart from Jimmi likely taking over TheGoose for having more players in their squad in the EC. Emulsfier as top prospect for this EC is likely to jump from 11th to 6th place. He'll be ahead of Cooking with Sanchez, who is currently in front of them, by 700 points!
Other big risers - mostly those who are expected to have a four-digit score - are cannibal (+4), Cinnamon Bun (+5), tungsten tossers (+5) and myself (+5). It's going to be a tense weekend for Randall (-3), Gidra (-3) and especially Cooking with Sanchez (-8!), who needs to hope that Suljovic and Hughes do well besides Price. These three are the only ones to drop more than two spots according to FDI.

I will save these projections just like I did with the WGP, and this time I'll be a little more elaborate in my feedback.
Also, if we're going to do Fantasy Darts again next year (by the way, Safc, how's spreadsheet making going?) probably I'm going to keep track of every darts player you could pick and what they scored, so I can evaluate who were the best picks. But that's looking too far into the future