The Darts Forum

SuperSwede wrote: ↑Fri Jul 17, 2020 4:54 pm I like to think I am a hybrid of the two but given the choice of the options you gave i'd side with your approach simply because the other will be more likely to drastically increase stakes and chase losses.

I can subjectively agree. I do think that both ways are about as good, however someone who bets based on their own judgement makes more mistakes because it's often a biased and/or misjudged analysis, whereas I with my statistical approach always know exactly what I am going to do.

On another note, the big thing that is still in question is whether or not FDI's projections are accurate enough. Obviously I'm not starting with betting straight away as long as I have no assurance that my strategy will/might work. I might be able to adjust the percentages FDI suggests after having collected information from a handful of TV tournaments and end up with a minimum that I should be able to work with, almost assuring an ongoing profitable strategy; similar to what I did today with the bets I've 'made' and shared: if I would decrease FDI's percentages to 70% of what they are now - suggesting they are negatively inaccurate - I would still make a profit on average. If I have a 'low boundary' for the FDI's ratings with which I could still turn in a profit, I might start betting with some of my own cash.
My parents are tending against it, though.

vizIIsto wrote: ↑Fri Jul 17, 2020 6:07 pm

SuperSwede wrote: ↑Fri Jul 17, 2020 4:54 pm I like to think I am a hybrid of the two but given the choice of the options you gave i'd side with your approach simply because the other will be more likely to drastically increase stakes and chase losses.

I can subjectively agree. I do think that both ways are about as good, however someone who bets based on their own judgement makes more mistakes because it's often a biased and/or misjudged analysis, whereas I with my statistical approach always know exactly what I am going to do.

On another note, the big thing that is still in question is whether or not FDI's projections are accurate enough. Obviously I'm not starting with betting straight away as long as I have no assurance that my strategy will/might work. I might be able to adjust the percentages FDI suggests after having collected information from a handful of TV tournaments and end up with a minimum that I should be able to work with, almost assuring an ongoing profitable strategy; similar to what I did today with the bets I've 'made' and shared: if I would decrease FDI's percentages to 70% of what they are now - suggesting they are negatively inaccurate - I would still make a profit on average. If I have a 'low boundary' for the FDI's ratings with which I could still turn in a profit, I might start betting with some of my own cash.
My parents are tending against it, though.

I don't do much when it comes to elite levels at any sports. 80%+ of my darts bets come from BDO and early rounds in things like Euro Tour, UK Open and World Championships, World Cup, World Series.

The higher profile any sporting event is the more likely the prices on offer are correct.

For today's bets, I'm waiting to see if FDI Darts makes any more tweets over the next few hours, as sometimes they also post percentage odds for specific scorelines to happen. This doesn't happen at every tournament though, so if that doesn't come I'll have to do with just outright match winning odds.

Edit: So he posted those percentages for the first match of today. Hopefully he posts it for all of today's matches, then I can start earlier than expected.

Can't wait for Ginge to eventually read this thread.

Can't wait for Ginge to eventually read this thread.

Can't wait for Ginge to eventually read this thread.

Not all of FDI's projections have been shared yet, so I'll wait until 5 pm (British time) at most so I still have some time left to work on my calculations. They should be up before the first match starts.
(yup that's a really short timeframe to call it a 'betting advisor' but it's no other way unfortunately)

If saying his name 3 times summons him, is Ginge more a Bloody Mary or a Beetlejuice?

Emulsfier wrote: ↑Sat Jul 18, 2020 3:08 pm If saying his name 3 times summons him, is Ginge more a Bloody Mary or a Beetlejuice?

Safc wrote: ↑Sat Jul 18, 2020 3:19 pm

Emulsfier wrote: ↑Sat Jul 18, 2020 3:08 pm If saying his name 3 times summons him, is Ginge more a Bloody Mary or a Beetlejuice?

I expect this is footage of him when the BDO fucks themselves up in a new way:

Emulsfier wrote: ↑Sat Jul 18, 2020 3:24 pm

Safc wrote: ↑Sat Jul 18, 2020 3:19 pm

Emulsfier wrote: ↑Sat Jul 18, 2020 3:08 pm If saying his name 3 times summons him, is Ginge more a Bloody Mary or a Beetlejuice?

I expect this is footage of him when the BDO fucks themselves up in a new way:

It's a Brilliant film very very underrated

vizIIsto wrote: ↑Sat Jul 18, 2020 2:59 pm Not all of FDI's projections have been shared yet, so I'll wait until 5 pm (British time) at most so I still have some time left to work on my calculations. They should be up before the first match starts.
(yup that's a really short timeframe to call it a 'betting advisor' but it's no other way unfortunately)

Don't know how old you are but seeing as you mentioned your parents opinion I feel obliged to say start small or ideally paper bet for a while to see if your numbers are working.

SuperSwede wrote: ↑Sat Jul 18, 2020 5:12 pm

vizIIsto wrote: ↑Sat Jul 18, 2020 2:59 pm Not all of FDI's projections have been shared yet, so I'll wait until 5 pm (British time) at most so I still have some time left to work on my calculations. They should be up before the first match starts.
(yup that's a really short timeframe to call it a 'betting advisor' but it's no other way unfortunately)

Don't know how old you are but seeing as you mentioned your parents opinion I feel obliged to say start small or ideally paper bet for a while to see if your numbers are working.

Yup, that's the way I was thinking too, and it's the reason why I started this experiment. I don't know if the stats I have (FDI's projections basically) are reliable enough to make a profit out of.
Probably won't start betting until 2021 Worlds at least.

The tournament kicks off in about half an hour. Time enough to start recommending some bets? Possibly.

I've decided to spend exactly half of my bankroll for today. That's 128 points. Here's what I'm betting on:

• Joyce winning against Whitlock (EVS): +$1.3 per $10 placed | 56.7% success rate.
  Bet size: 22 points
  Joyce winning 10-3, 10-4 or 10-5 (13/2): +$2.1 per $10 placed | 16.1% success rate.
  Bet size: 10 points
  Ratajski winning against Wattimena (2/5): +$1.2 per $10 placed | 79.7% success rate.
  Bet size: 29 points
  Wade winning against Brown (1/3): +$1.3 per $10 placed | 84.8% success rate.
  Bet size: 33 points
  Wade winning by 10-3, 10-4 or 10-5 (5/2): +$1.9 per $10 placed | 34% success rate.
  Bet size: 19 points
  Van Gerwen vs. Dolan going over 14.5 legs (4/6): +$0.8 per $10 placed | 64.8% success rate.
  Bet size: 15 points

With these bets, my expected value - EV - is 17,5, so I'm expecting to win back about 113% of my input - a profit of 13%, or 3,5% of my current bankroll (including bets placed that are still running).
Perhaps this is a good time to introduce you to ROI: Return On Investment. It is a percentage which tells you how much profit you've made as a percentage of what you gambled with. Kind of like another way to say 'expected profit' in my eyes, but ROI is more commonly the term for the result after the matches have ended. For example, if I'm getting back 144 points, I've made a profit of 16 points on a 128 point gambit. The ROI here is 16/128 = 12,5%. I'll be using this in the future to visualize how well (or poor, for that matter) I have been betting since the start of this experiment.

My recommendations:
- The best bet here is betting on Wade winning his match against Keegan Brown. It has a very high success rate, and I think it is the best bet to make because the two other bets that have a higher profit on average (Joyce/Wade winning by a certain score) have a way lower success rate. Therefore, I'm going to place for you a virtual bet of $10 on Wade winning his match.

Here's the current bankrolls:
My virtual balance at the start of this day: 128 points (excluding: 244 placed on pre-tournament bets, 128 placed on today's matches)
"Your" virtual profit/loss before today: -$30

Tonight we will have the first results of my analysis. I can't wait! Happy betting!

An absolute fucking shambles.

The Ginge Reaper wrote: ↑Sat Jul 18, 2020 5:51 pm An absolute fucking shambles.

Half his day to day bankroll on the first fucking day ffs. Absolutely shambolic.

The Ginge Reaper wrote: ↑Sat Jul 18, 2020 5:54 pm Half his day to day bankroll on the first fucking day ffs. Absolutely shambolic.

For clarification I'm giving myself 500 points for each tournament. At the end of a tournament I calculate a percentage of how much I won/lost for that tournament. Then I add up everything so far after each tournament.

I would be YOLO much if I were to commit my entire bankroll to the first (or second/third) tournament I'll bet on.