US Election 2024

[Captain Hobo]

****Captain Hobo predicts the Election*****

OK, I am going to try and predict the outcome of the Electoral College (assuming Biden vs Trump) and Senate Race in 2024. This will be updated over time.

Electoral College - 270 to win (538 Total)

Biden Certainly - 211

California 54
New York 28
Washington 12
Oregon 8
New Mexico 5
Hawaii 4
Colorado 10
Illinois 19
Virginia 13
Maine 3
District of Columbia 3
Maryland 10
Delaware 3
New Jersey 14
Connecticut 7
Rhode Island 4
Massachusetts 11
Vermont 3

Biden Probably - 66

Nevada 6
Arizona 11
Nebraska 1
Minnesota 10
Michigan 15
New Hampshire 4
Pennsylvania 19

Trump Certainly - 219

Indiana 11
Ohio 17
West Virginia 4
Maine 1
Texas 40
Florida 30
Alaska 3
Utah 6
Nebraska 4
Idaho 4
Montana 4
Wyoming 3
North Dakota 3
Oklahoma 7
South Dakota 3
Kansas 6
Arkansas 6
Louisiana 8
Mississippi 6
Alabama 9
South Carolina 9
Kentucky 8
Tennessee 11
Missouri 10
Iowa 6


Trump Probably - 42

Georgia 16
North Carolina 16
Wisconsin 10

Current Tally

Biden 211 + 66 = 277
Trump 219 + 42 = 261

[Captain Hobo]

***Interesting Senate Elections***

Arizona

Incumbent Kyrsten Sinema was elected as a Democrat in 2018 but is now an Independent. Democrats have a strong potential candidate in Ruben Gallego, I think he will win if he's the nominee but it depends how crazy the Republican Candidate is (Hello Kari Lake) and where Sinema takes votes from if she runs.

Montana

Democrat Jon Tester has won this seat 3 times in a row but in a state that will massively vote for Trump he is in danger. Will be interesting who the Republican nominee will be.

Nevada

Democrat Jacky Rosen up for re-election. Will be very close.

Ohio

Democrat Sherrod Brown is very popular in Ohio and should just hold on despite Trump winning the state.

West Virginia

Incumbent Democrat Joe Manchin has said he is retiring and if that is true whoever the Republicans nominate will win. He may be persuaded to run again though.

Wisconsin

Democrat Tammy Baldwin is a popular incumbent and should hold on despite it being a toss-up in the Presidential race.

[oche balboa]

***Interesting Senate Elections***

Arizona

Incumbent Kyrsten Sinema was elected as a Democrat in 2018 but is now an Independent. Democrats have a strong potential candidate in Ruben Gallego, I think he will win if he's the nominee but it depends how crazy the Republican Candidate is (Hello Kari Lake) and where Sinema takes votes from if she runs.

Montana

Democrat Jon Tester has won this seat 3 times in a row but in a state that will massively vote for Trump he is in danger. Will be interesting who the Republican nominee will be.

Nevada

Democrat Jacky Rosen up for re-election. Will be very close.

Ohio

Democrat Sherrod Brown is very popular in Ohio and should just hold on despite Trump winning the state.

West Virginia

Incumbent Democrat Joe Manchin has said he is retiring and if that is true whoever the Republicans nominate will win. He may be persuaded to run again though.

Wisconsin

Democrat Tammy Baldwin is a popular incumbent and should hold on despite it being a toss-up in the Presidential race.

Can see Nevada going republican

Manchin is one of the few democrats who has backed republicans in the past so if he doesn't run its a republican win

Can't see the others changing. So R 51, D 49

[oche balboa]

Sherrod Brown is an interesting one, he's is very liberal and the state is lean conservative. I wonder what he has to make him popular

[oche balboa]

****Captain Hobo predicts the Election*****

OK, I am going to try and predict the outcome of the Electoral College (assuming Biden vs Trump) and Senate Race in 2024. This will be updated over time.

Electoral College - 270 to win (538 Total)

Biden Certainly - 211

California 54
New York 28
Washington 12
Oregon 8
New Mexico 5
Hawaii 4
Colorado 10
Illinois 19
Virginia 13
Maine 3
District of Columbia 3
Maryland 10
Delaware 3
New Jersey 14
Connecticut 7
Rhode Island 4
Massachusetts 11
Vermont 3

Biden Probably - 66

Nevada 6
Arizona 11
Nebraska 1
Minnesota 10
Michigan 15
New Hampshire 4
Pennsylvania 19

Trump Certainly - 219

Indiana 11
Ohio 17
West Virginia 4
Maine 1
Texas 40
Florida 30
Alaska 3
Utah 6
Nebraska 4
Idaho 4
Montana 4
Wyoming 3
North Dakota 3
Oklahoma 7
South Dakota 3
Kansas 6
Arkansas 6
Louisiana 8
Mississippi 6
Alabama 9
South Carolina 9
Kentucky 8
Tennessee 11
Missouri 10
Iowa 6


Trump Probably - 42

Georgia 16
North Carolina 16
Wisconsin 10

Current Tally

Biden 211 + 66 = 277
Trump 219 + 42 = 261

I think Arizona and Nevada will decide the presidency. I agree with most of your predictions but i'm leaning trump on those two states

So mine is Biden 260. Trump 278

[oche balboa]

I also think Democrats will win back the House. So it will be a flip reversal of what we have now

[Captain Hobo]

Sherrod Brown is an interesting one, he's is very liberal and the state is lean conservative. I wonder what he has to make him popular

He is a very skilled communicator and gets his message across well.

Comes across as more of a normal person than most Politicians.

[Captain Hobo]

MTG's book is a complete flop, who woulda thought?

[Captain Hobo]

Nikki Haley endorsed by the 1 Koch brother who is unfortunately not yet worm food.

[oche balboa]

Makes no difference. It's going to be Trump

[Cooking with Sandra]

Oche stanning for Trump, and by proxy, Eccles, there.

[Captain Hobo]

Ron DeSantis and Gavin Newsom are debating on Fox News on Thursday night for some reason.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/28/us/p ... ebate.html

[Captain Hobo]

Quote from Casey DeSantis about her husband Ron.

"He is literally willing to put himself in front of a freight train to stand up for the people of this state and this country"

I'd like to take Ron up on his offer.

[oche balboa]

Ron DeSantis and Gavin Newsom are debating on Fox News on Thursday night for some reason.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/28/us/p ... ebate.html

excellent

[oche balboa]

Quote from Casey DeSantis about her husband Ron.

"He is literally willing to put himself in front of a freight train to stand up for the people of this state and this country"

I'd like to take Ron up on his offer.

Ron is great. He's done a good job for Florida and he's punching with his missus

[Cooking with Sandra]

Oche supporting actual nazis for attention, there.

[Captain Hobo]

Even 'The View' pointing out that Trump is losing his marbles. He doesn't know which city he's in, who the current President is, or that World War II has already happened.

[The Thorn]

Trump v Biden 2024

[Captain Hobo]

Trump v Biden 2024

Biden is Herbert according to Oche.

[The Thorn]

Trump v Biden 2024

Biden is Herbert according to Oche.

Correct. Trump is the Nazi